Delta hiring slowing?

[CFIT99]

I’ll actually be serious here: the AA flow is 5 yrs?!

That’s 5 yrs of additional young people hired before you, 5 more years of higher retirements going away, leading into a decade of much slower retirements, 5 yrs of missing out on the remaining end of this front curve.

How is this a good deal? Why not just go to another regional, and apply to AA in yr 2-3?

Another post I agree with…Dacuj is a wizard…

Yes getting hired outside the flow is “outlier” statistics, your odds are SIGNIFICANTLY higher to get on from another regional or ULCC….like exponentially higher

 

[Dacuj]

Funny. 6 or 7 years ago I was deadheading with an Eagle guy that just got his flow. He was just over 20 years. Guess he was lying?

Yep. Don't know of a single individual that took over 20 years. Unless it was one of a few boneheads who bypassed a few times.

 

[Dacuj]

Eagle flow? When I was starting at the regionals, the upgrade time at American Eagle was 10 yrs, and many left seats on E145s were AA flow backs. Now I never worked there, but as I recall when one took the upgrade, they had to declare Eagle Rights or AA flowthrough. Those who declared flowthrough, were the seats that AA furloughees flowed back to.

Now I’m sure there’s no flow back provision today. Just calling out the turd that was “flowthrough” in those days.

There isn't a flowback today. Only one way. Flow. Through. In 5 years or less. Upgrade as soon as your qualified, flow in under 5.

 

[MikeD]

This may have been mentioned already, but it sounds like a flow is good for someone who gets hired at Envoy, but doesn’t possess the hours or experience that a major….in this case, AA….would be looking for, for hiring. Otherwise it would seem that anyone on the outside who already does possess the hours and experience AA is looking for, would be better off just applying and being hired directly into AA, with no need for any intermediate stepping stone such as Envoy.

 

[word302]

This may have been mentioned already, but it sounds like a flow is good for someone who gets hired at Envoy, but doesn’t possess the hours or experience that a major….in this case, AA….would be looking for, for hiring. Otherwise it would seem that anyone on the outside who already does possess the hours and experience AA is looking for, would be better off just applying and being hired directly into AA, with no need for any intermediate stepping stone such as Envoy.

Not even really then. If AA is truly where you want to be the fastest way there is to fly for a non wholly-owned regional. Currently 5 years is an eternity to spend at a regional. If that changes the flow times will change as well. The flow has almost never been the fastest way to get to AA.

 

[Roger Roger]

I thought it was common knowledge at this point that horizon isn’t the fastest way to Alaska, envoy isn’t the fastest to American, etc

 

[Hiboglossi]

This may have been mentioned already, but it sounds like a flow is good for someone who gets hired at Envoy, but doesn’t possess the hours or experience that a major….in this case, AA….would be looking for, for hiring. Otherwise it would seem that anyone on the outside who already does possess the hours and experience AA is looking for, would be better off just applying and being hired directly into AA, with no need for any intermediate stepping stone such as Envoy.

Pretty much. As I see it, the flow would be a good thing to have as "career insurance" in case you can't escape the regionals otherwise. If you're already at Envoy you'd be best served applying to every major and taking the first opportunity to escape, and if that opportunity never comes at least you'll have some up of eventually flowing. And if you're already somewhere better than the regionals there would certainly be no point in going to Envoy for the flow.

Now as I said before, I'm not sure if there are any conditions or provisos to the flow that could get you excluded from it, since I've never worked at any of the AA wholly owned regionals myself. My old regional technically had a flow to its mainline partner that you could be removed from quite easily, such as if you don't fly while sick.

 

[Maurus]

This may have been mentioned already, but it sounds like a flow is good for someone who gets hired at Envoy, but doesn’t possess the hours or experience that a major….in this case, AA….would be looking for, for hiring. Otherwise it would seem that anyone on the outside who already does possess the hours and experience AA is looking for, would be better off just applying and being hired directly into AA, with no need for any intermediate stepping stone such as Envoy.

Flow is last ditch resort option and that is all it should ever be considered. It would have taken me another 1.5 - 2 years to flow to AA and I would have lost 4000 numbers of seniority while waiting around.

I understand what you are saying but Delta and AA have limited direct hiring from their WO regionals. I honestly believe it would be best to go to RAH or some other non-WO carrier if you want to min/max your career since you will hit the requirements they want long before flow occurs.

 

[Maurus]

You’re twisting the facts. The flow has never been 20 years, ever. It’s actually under 5 years now with the latest projections.

American Eagle (Envoy) past flow had a massively long wait. Hell, just to upgrade it took 8-10 years. you can easily extrapolate a 16-20 year flow just based on that number. I would love to see how you get a 5 year flow time with math. PSA still has a 8 year flow I believe but recruiting has always advertised a much shorter flow time for years now. Clearly the assumptions used in the flow projections are not accurate at all and are only used to misrepresent for recruiting purposes.

 

[Hiboglossi]

They all pay well now,

I was at one that paid significantly less than the rest until 9 months ago...

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

There isn't a flowback today. Only one way. Flow. Through. In 5 years or less. Upgrade as soon as your qualified, flow in under 5.

True or false?

People that go to other airlines are being picked up faster at AA than waiting 5 hrs for the flow.

 

[word302]

Pretty much. As I see it, the flow would be a good thing to have as "career insurance" in case you can't escape the regionals otherwise. If you're already at Envoy you'd be best served applying to every major and taking the first opportunity to escape, and if that opportunity never comes at least you'll have some up of eventually flowing. And if you're already somewhere better than the regionals there would certainly be no point in going to Envoy for the flow.

Now as I said before, I'm not sure if there are any conditions or provisos to the flow that could get you excluded from it, since I've never worked at any of the AA wholly owned regionals myself. My old regional technically had a flow to its mainline partner that you could be removed from quite easily, such as if you don't fly while sick.

That’s just it though. If nobody’s hiring, flows aren’t happening either. It’s not insurance, it’s a handcuff. Go where it makes the most sense geographically and movement/pay/benefits suit your needs. If you still have more than one choice based on those factors choose the one that appears less • to get stuck at for a decade+. Flow is literally the last thing I would consider when choosing where to work.

 

[Hiboglossi]

That’s just it though. If nobody’s hiring, flows aren’t happening either.

Even in good hiring climates, some people still get stuck at the regionals for life. And starting out at the regionals you have no way of knowing you won't end up in that boat.

It’s not insurance, it’s a handcuff.

It's not a handcuff since you can still apply at other majors, the only thing it prevents is getting hired at AA before you flow. If anything it probably improves your chances of getting hired at other legacies since they seem to like to "poach" from each other's wholly owned regionals, at least while they're having trouble staffing.

Now a good argument against going to Envoy, etc. is that they only fly for American, so you'd be at greater risk of being Comaired than at a regional that flies for more than 1 mainline partner.

 

[DeltaAlphaNovember]

What if I leave AA and go back to PSA? Can I flow again?

 

[word302]

Even in good hiring climates, some people still get stuck at the regionals for life. And starting out at the regionals you have no way of knowing you won't end up in that boat.



It's not a handcuff since you can still apply at other majors, the only thing it prevents is getting hired at AA before you flow. If anything it probably improves your chances of getting hired at other legacies since they seem to like to "poach" from each other's wholly owned regionals, at least while they're having trouble staffing.

Now a good argument against going to Envoy, etc. is that they only fly for American, so you'd be at greater risk of being Comaired than at a regional that flies for more than 1 mainline partner.

Well I’ve seen people try and justify the benefit of flows for the last decade+. It’s actually worked out for a very minuscule percentage over the years. Like I said, that wouldn’t even be a factor for me in choosing where to go. Those that think it is just don’t really know their history. If you want to be at AA it’s always been one of the slowest ways to get there.

 

[ClearedForOption]

This whole discussion is really a case of "the more things change, the more they stay the same." Or, when Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often does rhyme."

Yes, hiring is pulling back.
No, the music probably hasn't stopped.

Who, really, is going to get hurt by this... The PilotBros™. As in:

"Bro, I'm gonna be a pilot and make half a mil, travel, and only work 3 days a year."
"Awesome, bro, me too!"
**BRO HUG**

The only thing that worries me is that we have created, for lack of a better term, another generation of Aviation Boomers.

A group of people protected from any sort of downturn, that will make bad collective decisions... like trading $2 for scope for instance. A group that will completely undermine the incremental gains from the last 20 years after the gutting of the industry following 9/11.

I go back to the same story, alot, when I think about this: I was sitting in mandatory 'fuel savings training' circa '08ish... the class was being taught to a bunch of regional pukes. Mostly 20-somethings, 30-somethings... all of us having crawled our way up in the post-9/11 industry landscape. Full lost decade-lite. The class was being taught by a management-wonk. Ex-mil. Mainline. Of the previous generation, hired during a boom.

He didn't understand at all the kind of flying that we were doing. I mean, not at all. 5 legs a day in a RJ? In and out of the hub? 14 followed by 16 followed by 14 pre-117 "legal" rest? In fact, if he even had a vote at the time, I'm sure that he would have traded anything for 30 more pieces of silver.

It wasn't the joke of training. It wasn't even this wonk trying to get a bunch of sweaty and tired dudes to care about the 50 lbs a flight of gas... it was the disconnect. We didn't speak the same language. Heck, in the pyramid scheme of life, we weren't even on the bottom... we were dredging the nile river to feed the guys who sub-contracted to the folks who built the lever to wedge others under the pyramid.

Flash forward to today... where the plague is the potential career-ending event. But, instead of another lost decade, we bounced back up with the help of the PPP funds, early retirements, and etc. Barring another crazy calamity - or a company with 30B debt - that will most likely be solved by restructuring. Anyone who has 15%ish of a seniority list under them is probably going to be safe from the music stopping.

Anyhoo... no point other than there are ups and downs in aviation. The seniority system gives and takes. And, the hiring boom from the plague is probably passed and even though we are going to se movement... the generational insanity is over for the next 25-35 years.

Or, in meme form for my TL/DR friends:

It's probably gonna start swinging back again.

 

[Cherokee_Cruiser]

Very good point. And like you said/hinted at, the new blood aviation bros who have never seen a downturn could easily give up long established protections for a few more dollars for the YOLO lifestyle.

“Scope? Who cares? They can’t find enough pilots at regionals anyway.”

And, I mean, you got our very own dacuj getting a twinkle in his eye seeing 2 737s next to 2 E175s. Some of us remember the latter 2 being F100s flown by real mainline AA pilots. Not the Envoy/Eagle pilots.

You got an entire generation now that look at E175s as “yeah, so?”

About 60% of major airline seniority lists did not see RJs grow while mainline jets were getting parked.

 

[MikeD]

Very good point. And like you said/hinted at, the new blood aviation bros who have never seen a downturn could easily give up long established protections for a few more dollars for the YOLO lifestyle.

Who taught them that? To think like that? All the current pilots who rail on often about “it’s all about stacking the cheddah!” And that’s all these newbies hear. So, they act accordingly…..$2 extra is just more cheddah.

 

[Roger Roger]

The guy claiming that this generation doesn’t care about scope, who works for an airline that literally didn’t have scope until some younger blood came in is pretty rich

 

[Hiboglossi]

The guy claiming that this generation doesn’t care about scope, who works for an airline that literally didn’t have scope until some younger blood came in is pretty rich

Isn't he more or less part of that younger blood though?